His main argument is that development efforts should now be focused more exclusively on a group of the poorest countries in the world which are falling behind the rest, in which about a billion people live. Its message contrasts with one of the most influential papers/books to have been published in the last few years, Paul Collier's 'The Bottom Billion'.Ĭollier, in his important and well-argued contribution, comes up with that rare thing: a statistic that sticks in the mind and changes the language.

And the paper matters because it is another well-argued case for a rethink of the tired aid dynamics that have now held sway for over half a century. The statistic matters because it raises serious questions about the way donor countries use aid in the future. Countries with a GDP per capita of $995 or less are called 'low income', cross that threshold and you become 'middle income'. After all, the World Bank's LIC/MIC classification is fairly random. We have been well aware for some time that the massive populations of China and India alone mean they host more poor people than the entire population of Africa, let alone just the African poor. Some might be fairly underwhelmed by this statistic. Rather the countries within which they live have changed from being LICs to being MICs. Poor people have not been moving, obviously. Sumner emphasises the contrast between today's situation with that of 20 years ago when 93% of poor people lived in LICs. Lots more.Īccording to Andy Sumner (at the Institute of Development Studies), who wrote this paper, approximately three quarters of the world's 1.3 billion poor people today live in MICs, with the others living in LICs, mostly in Africa.

It is this: more poor people live in middle-income countries (MICs) than low income countries (LICs). With all the MDG stats flying around at the moment, you may have missed a new paper that presents one simple statistic that will, over time, revolutionise how rich countries use aid and support development. Population living under $1.25 a day in millions of people, mapped by Many Eyes.

Paul collier the bottom billion summary